developer activity remains the swing factor for short-term positioning

Cycles rhyme, but the plumbing underneath keeps changing.

Historically, stretches where stablecoin settlement leads without support from cross-exchange spreads invite sharper reversals.

Put beside current chatter on “Mercado Bitcoin Suspends Withdrawals After $40M in Suspcious Transfers,” the incentive problem looks clearer.

Revisit assumptions weekly; markets change faster than slogans.

Useful frameworks survive longer than seasonal slogans.

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