user retention is rewriting assumptions about liquidity conditions

Historically, stretches where sanctions screening leads without support from liquid staking invite sharper reversals.

Ignoring protocol revenue because exchange reserves looks exciting is how late-cycle mistakes compound.

Put beside current chatter on “RUNE rallies 15% as THORChain restarts most swaps after halt,” the incentive problem looks clearer.

Useful frameworks survive longer than seasonal slogans.

None of this is financial advice; it is a framing for cleaner decisions.

The edge is often just refusing to confuse volume with conviction.

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